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Anonymous asked in Politics & GovernmentElections · 2 months ago

Why is there no statistical information about the election?

Have you noticed that no intrepid reporter has written a book, or a newspaper conducted an investigative report into the Biden election?  You would think it would be a very important and noteworthy endeavor.  Pulitzer prize grade subject, possibly bigger that Watergate.   But, there is no information.   Here is one thing I would like to know is whether or not the vote total for Biden matches the  vote totals for other races, or were there a lot of ballots with only one vote, and that vote being for Biden.  The thinking is that if you were going to change the vote, you would have to be really brave to change to the vote on all of the candidates, i.e. the entire government.  The democrats were probably not brave enough to wipe out all republicans in a red state.  So, there should a discrepancy in the vote totals for Biden and for the other candidates on the ballot.   Likewise, these totals should have some consistency with the voting statistics of previous elections.  How far off were they, and how can that be explained. 

2 Answers

  • 2 months ago

    The vote totals in one race never match the vote totals for other races, because there are always some voters that vote in only one race and not the others.

    If they did match, that would indicate that there had been fraud.  Different vote totals are what occurs when there is not fraud.

  • Tmess2
    Lv 7
    2 months ago

    There will be books about the election as the year goes on.  But very few reporters are good at statistics, and the number of experts at election statistics who are good writers is also small.  

    We know three things at this point:

    1) In every election, there is a gradual decline between the top race on the ballot -- President down to the bottom race on the ballot (typically a referendum).  From the numbers that I have seen from this year, there did not appear to be statistically significant variation from the norm.  

    2)  The number of congressional districts in which one party wins the presidential race and another wins the congressional race has actually been declining.  This year, there were only sixteen districts with split results (the Democrats won seven and the Republicans nine).  

    3)  The overall numbers nationally are:

    For President:  Biden -- 81.3 million; Trump -- 74.2 million; total 158.5 Million (about 3.0 million went to third-party candidates)

    For the House:  Democrats -- 77.4 million; Republicans 72.7 million; total 153.3 million (about 3.2 million went to third party candidates)

    The problem is that, in some states, Trump did better than the Republican candidates for Representative while, in others, the Republican did better than Trump.  For example, in Alaska, there were a lot of third-party votes for President, and -- in the House race -- more of those third-party votes went to the Democratic House candidate.  But it is hard to make anything statistically significant out of that as current estimates are that 5-10% of the voters are actually ticket splitters and the candidate matters for those voters.  

    And when you look at the states with biggest drop-off between Biden and the Democratic candidates, you get states like Alabama (over 200,000) where the Democrats did not field a candidate in two districts and Florida (around 300,000) where, again, the Democrats did not field a candidate in two districts.  

    I doubt that there will be anything like the smoking gun that you had in Palm Beach County in 2000 where a large number of people who voted Democrat for Congress also appeared to have voted for Pat Buchanan for President.  

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