Why have heatwaves increased?
So-called "skeptics" claim that heat waves and extreme heat have not increased. Authoritative peer reviewed evidence says otherwise.
Ceccherini et al. 2016
"This study describes the extreme temperature regime of heat waves and cold waves across South America over recent years (1980-2014). ... results indicate an increase in intensity and in frequency of heat waves, especially in the last 10 years."
Coumou et al., 2013
"Worldwide, the number of local record-breaking monthly temperature extremes is now on average five times larger than expected in a climate with no long-term warming ... summertime records, which are associated with prolonged heat waves, increased by more than a factor of ten in some continental regions including parts of Europe, Africa, southern Asia and Amazonia."
"Over the period 1880 to 2005 the length of summer heat waves over Western Europe has doubled and the frequency of hot days has almost tripled"
Duffy and Tebaldi, 2012
"Analysis of observations and climate model results shows that previously rare (5th percentile) summertime average temperatures are presently occurring with greatly increased frequency in some regions of the 48 contiguous United States ... this result is more consistent with the consequences of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations than with the effects of natural climate variability"
Fischer and Knutti 2014
"The two gridded data sets, HadEX2 and GHCNDEX, consistently show an intensification of hot extremes ...over large parts of Europe, parts of northern Asia (around Mongolia) by 2-3K in the period 1960-2010...More than a third of the land fraction experienced trends that are larger than 1 K over the period 1960-2010."
Knutson & Ploshay, 2016
"As a heat stress metric we use a simplified wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index...our analysis suggests that there has been a detectable anthropogenic increase in mean summertime heat stress since 1973, both globally and in most land regions analyzed."
Kuglitsch et al., 2010
"Since the 1960s, the mean heat wave intensity, heat wave length and heat wave number across the eastern Mediterranean region have increased by a factor of 7.6 +/- 1.3, 7.5 +/- 1.3 and 6.2 +/- 1.1, respectively."
Mishra et al. 2015;
"Using observed station data for 217 urban areas across the globe, we show that these urban areas have experienced significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the number of heat waves during the period 1973-2012."
Raymond et al., 2020
"A comprehensive evaluation of weather station data shows that some coastal subtropical locations have already reported a TW of 35 C and that extreme humid heat overall has more than doubled in frequency since 1979"
Vittal et al., 2019
"Summer heat waves over India have been increasing in frequency and severity during recent decades, and are responsible for thousands of deaths...The conditions in the Atlantic that drove these heat waves were exacerbated by greenhouse gas emissions rather than natural forcing."
Xie et al., 2020
"Since the 1960s, the frequencies of the mild, moderate, severe, and extreme heat waves in China have increased significantly with rates of 7.5, 4.3, 1.4, and 1.8 events per year, respectively."
Obviously you don't know how to respond, which is why you always go back to "you are Dirac" distraction tactic. Say as it as much as you want, I'm still not Dirac.
You complain South America and Europe are "not global" You then paste charts and figures, 100% of which are only based on US data? Is the US global? I also cited literature from China and India, as well as studies which looked specifically at global data.
<<Instead of trying to fit the peer review into your notions with sleight of hand, just simplify it. Get a chart.>>
Hm, citing peer reviewed original work -- "straight from the source" I believe you call it -- vs creating my own picture in MS paint without citing the source of scope of the data it represents. Which one sounds more "sleight of hand"?
Grenade man, I don't get paid to read blogs, which is where I find most of these papers. I save the ones related to observations over time, because I think they are the most interesting. I have been doing it for years. In what fantasy alternative universe would anyone pay someone else to do that? In the real world, where people do actual work to receive money, abundant flows of easy money for doing nothing don't actually exist. Anyone who actually has a job would understand that.
Anonymous: <<The world temperature is 1.08 degrees cooler than it was in the late '90s. This may come as a shock to many.>> Yes, shocking that you would be so willing to invent your own facts so blatantly just to support your conspiracy theories. Even in the satellite data, which had the most dramatic spike (outlier) in 1998, the planet has been warmer since (2016 and 2020 so far.) Casey and the other ice age alarmists have been predicting this cooling for decades. Reality has proven them wrong.
- BillLv 72 weeks ago
Not factual. There are more Scientist who question the lobal Warming theory as there are that support it.
- 3 weeks ago
STFU, Dirac. Stupid bltch.
- Anonymous4 weeks ago
Now, come to find out, our planet has been cooling since 1998. The world temperature is 1.08 degrees cooler than it was in the late '90s. This may come as a shock to many, but there is really nothing to this "global warming" hoax. Turns out, this has all been an attempt to keep the money coming to those who are collecting funds for various "anti-climate change," entities who think they are helping to save our planet from an invented "disaster."
Our government spends $22 billion a year (that figures out to $41,856 a MINUTE) on global climate change interests. Now, that is quite a piece of change being pocketed by all kinds of businesses, so we cannot tell the truth. That would be a real set-back for those who are profiting so handsomely from the fear-mongering, would it not?
There is a former NASA engineer named John L. Casey, who worked for years with our White House Space Program. Highly regarded by many until he retired and began to look into the whole climate change scenario. He delved into government archives and found that the whole truth about global climate change has not been told. He wrote a dossier, 164 pages long, exposing the fact that humans have NO impact on global climate change — NONE!
Just like we have night and day very regularly, the world also experiences warming and cooling trends regularly, with sunspot activity or lack thereof, and so our futile attempts to regulate what is already naturally occurring, regulated by God Himself, all comes down to nothing. Well, I can't call $22 billion dollars nothing, can I?
- garryLv 44 weeks ago
heat wave where , its been cold here , so much for global warming .
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- Anonymous4 weeks ago
bottom line, because there are too many anti science right wingers.
- J.R.Lv 44 weeks ago
How do you know heat waves aren't worse in some places because of urbanization? As in, city pavement and less grass make things hotter for longer periods. A lot of places have developed and urbanized over time.
- SamLv 54 weeks ago
Increased where? You missed Africa, N America, Australia, Eastern Europe, Middle East, Antarctica, and the majority of Asia.
You can always find regional variations, but that's not necessarily global or an average.
- The BluesLv 54 weeks ago
Gee, is this another one of your--what did you call it?--oh, your "personal passion projects."
Tell me how a new father with a civil engineering job in Florida is sitting at home researching all of this and posting on Yahoo. No way. I agree that you're either Dirac (who is jobless) or someone is paying you to do this.
- 4 weeks ago
Is this serious, Dirac?
Summertime records "associated" with prolonged heat waves are not heat waves themselves. A record temp for a day is (again) weather, not climate.
Heat waves in "some regions" of the 48 contiguous states is not the US overall. Indeed, heat waves are declining in the US (see graphic).
Your other research is some ambiguous temps that are dramatic not because they actually were extreme, but only dramatic because they're compared to a theoretical, fictitious, unknown, and frankly, contrived "climate with no long-term warming." Is that some new type of circle jerk? What does that even mean?
Finally, South America and Western Europe are not global.
Oh yeah, urban areas get hotter with more concrete and buildings. So much for that study.
I'm not the one claiming the global increases. I'm not the one claiming US increases. You and the alarmists are doing that, so you need to demonstrate it.
Instead of trying to fit the peer review into your notions with sleight of hand, just simplify it. Get a chart. Like the ones below.
- Davie BwoiLv 64 weeks ago
Nope, all wrong, it’s definitely getting cooler.
Dirac sock puppet owned.
I am the winner again.