does Martingale betting system work in all forms of gambling or only casinos?
if one month I buy $20 worth of lottery tickets and win nothing thn next month up it to $40. how long before I win something. I won $2,000 on a scratch off once
- Anonymous1 month ago
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- 2 months ago
Some games have constant negative expectations. Those games can't be beaten in the long run and not usually effectively in the short run. Yeah, the Martingale system where one doubles his bets on a nearly even money (but negative expectation) bet will let you win one unit on your series provided that you actually win before you reach the maximum allowable bet or run out of money.
For instance, let's say that you play Roulette and bet black (or red or alternate between red and black or odd or even or high or low. It actually doesn't matter.). Let's say that, contrary to the practice in most casinos, you are allow to bet a minimum of $1 and a maximum of $1000. Your first bet is $1. If you lose, you bet $2. If you win that, you have a $1 gain. If you lose that bet, you bet $4. It seems that, no matter what, you will always win $1 once you win. Well, you will until you lose 9 time in a row. If you lose 9 times in a row, you would have to bet $1024 in order to recover your losses and win $1. But, $1000 is the limit. So, even if you win the 10th time, you have lost $23. Oh, you say, but that can't happen. "I can't possibly lose 9 times in a row!" Yes, you can. In fact, it will happen about one time in 402 that you start playing (with just a single 0. With 00, it's more often than that). If you lose the 10th time, you have lost $2023. It will take a lot of $1 series to make that up. In fact, casinos love to see people try it and will even help people calculate their next bet, if they ask!
There are some games that the only way to beat them in a lifetime is to play just once and win the first try and then quit and never play the game again. Scratchers is like that.
There are some games that you can beat sometimes but not others. Most such games are called "progressive jackpots". It doesn't happen often and usually when it does, a large, well funded group pays people to fill every seat or buy every possible ticket until the jackpot hits. Just in case it comes up or the casinos outlaw the practice, there are machines that have, let's say, 3 million combinations and you need to play for $5 to participate in the progressive. Well, when the jackpot gets up over $15, the $5 that you play is expected to return more than $5. Gaming laws are usually set up that any progressive jackpot MUST be awarded to someone. So, what happens when the progressive gets ridiculous, like say $35 Million on a machine such as I described? When every $5 play expects to receive $10.67 in return? Well, if you have enough money that you can pay enough people minimum wage to play all the machines, that's what you do. When it hits, you pay the taxes and take the profit.
There are some games where the old joke in which two guys being chased by a bear is allegorical. One of them turns to the other and says "This is silly! We can't outrun a bear!" to which the other replies "I don't have to outrun the bear. I only have to outrun you!" This would apply to games such as poker and sports betting when you don't have to beat the game to win. You have only to beat the other players. Take care however. Most games where you only have to beat the other players are conducted by establishments that don't work for free, so just being better than the average player isn't quite good enough. You have to be able to beat the slightly better than average player and pay the charge for playing as well.
Then there are games such as Blackjack and Baccarat where the expectations change based upon previous play and the payouts don't. There are times when the game favors a player who knows what has previously take place. It used to happen quite frequently in Blackjack. Some rule and payout changes have crept in that have made the game increasingly difficult to beat. Baccarat almost never deals deep enough into the shoe in order for this to happen, even if one had been keeping good count.
Occasionally, however, games with a positive player expectation are offered either by mistake or as a means of drawing people to the venue. Play those games as much and for as long as you are allowed! It's fun to win!
- SlickterpLv 72 months ago
It doesn't work in casinos either. It doesn't work anywhere.
- 2 months ago
It only works if the payoff is 2 to 1 odds...
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- LudwigLv 72 months ago
Avoid Martingale type systems. Nobody has ever managed to produce a practical one.
- Coffee DrinkerLv 72 months ago
Martingale is based on a betting system where you can increase your bet on a single result and receive an increased payout if that result hits.
In the lottery you cannot increase the amount you bet on a single combination of numbers, you can only buy more tickets which increases your chances of holding a winning ticket but does not increase the size of the payout if you hold a winning ticket.
So the entire premise of the martingale system requires a game where you can make a larger bet on a single result and receive a payout proportional to the size of your bet.
The system still doesn't work because sooner or later you'll hit a losing streak that will wipe out your bankroll or hit the maximum allowed bet amount and that loss will wipe out any profits you've made.
You can't change the house edge, so the more money you put on the table for any game, the more you'll lose in the long run.
- Divide By ZeroLv 72 months ago
It doesn't work in any form of gambling.
Normally it's used as a way to play a "reverse lottery", where you're betting against the casino hitting an unlikely streak. It's like risking thousands of dollars to win $1 the vast majority of the time. The reason it fails is that you're still not winning that dollar often enough to make your net profit positive. Eventually the reverse-lotto jackpot hits and you're the one paying it out. You win a few hundred dollars $1-at-a-time and then boom, you lose 10k in one minute.
What you're describing is different than how most people use the martingale, but it will still fail because the underlying problem is the same - each individual bet you make has a negative expectation, and the sum of negative expectations is a more-negative expectation. In your case, you'd be putting a ton of money into a game with a 50% house edge, which is an effective way to rapidly disappear your money.
- LegFuJohnsonLv 72 months ago
I chuckled, you got me.
You think that $2000 winner was related to how many tickets you bought the week or month before?
- A.J.Lv 72 months ago
Martingale is a long term losing system. It works best in situations of lowest House odds favor and quitting while ahead. Lottery tickets are typically the worst odds gambling. I live in Las Vegas and am college degreed with backgrounds in this subject.
The issue with Martingale is betting limits and bankroll. When the house odds are higher, the losses in a row pile up faster. Lotteries usually return only 50 to 60% of the take. It's common to lose 8 times in a row in a lottery. Suppose it was all losers, which you know happens.$20 + $40 + $80 + $160 + $320 + $640 + $1280 + $2560
Would you be prepared to bet that $2560 especially when already down $2540? And, what if you lost again?
I used computer software to test Martingale myself, and there is no question that at 100% even no house advantage you get burned in bet limits and bankroll issues because few have unlimited money. And with house advantage, you lose more often and faster.
Statistically, if you have $1000 and try a $2 Martingale and quit for good at $500 ahead on a close to even game, you should win. You just can't keep repeating. You need 250 wins at even money payout before losing 9 in a row.
- PetterLv 72 months ago
Martingale is a sure way to bankrupcy, unless you got an unlimited amount of money to bet with. You could go ten weeks without winning, are you sure you got the balls enough to bet over 20 000 dollares week 11?