Laura asked in Politics & GovernmentPolitics · 4 months ago

Why is Texas suddenly a swing state? Biden and Trump are basically tied, in the polls?

I have lived in Texas my whole life, and it is almost always a red (Republican) state. 

8 Answers

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  • Anonymous
    4 months ago

    Well one thing is the demographics.  Republicans get almost all their support from white people, but Texas, like much of the rest of the country, is becoming less and less white.  It's actually been majority minority for years now.  But there are two things which keep in reliably Republican: first there's abysmal turnout among much of the Hispanic population, who make up the second largest racial group in the state.  Second, many Hispanic Texans have been too young to vote.  But that latter problem solves itself a little more every year.  Texas is also seeing growing populations of African Americans, Asians, and other racial groups as professionals move into the economically thriving urban areas. 

    But it's not just racial demographics.  Trump has never been that popular in Texas.  In 2016 he beat Clinton by nine points there.  Which might seem like a lot until you realize that Mitt Romney beat Obama there by almost 18 points. Trump remains underwater in the state, with his disapproval rating higher than his approval rating.  The 2018 election saw a major erosion of Republican support in the Texas suburbs, which they used to mostly dominate.  I think Texans are tired of Trump for the same reasons that many Americans are. 

  • 4 months ago

    Texas used to actually be a blue state.  Particularly on state-wide offices.

    It retains a strong Democratic minority.

    So even though the election maps make it look like Clinton got smoked in Texas 2016, she actually got 43% of the vote.  And lost by a narrower margin than any Democrat since 1996, when Perot drew off a substantial chunk of Dole's GOP support.

    Carter actually won Texas in 1976.

  • 4 months ago

    I've lived in Texas most of my life as well. Until about 1980 it was always 50/50. With one Democratic party senator and one Republican. Dallas County is solid Blue Houston is mostly Red. Far West and South Texas are Blue East Texas is still Red. People are sick of Trump. It could go either way. People are starting to realize that Trump was a mistake.

  • Anonymous
    4 months ago

    Texas had the greatest number of COVID-19 death of all states yesterday. And today.

    I suppose Texans finally learned something...

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  • Anonymous
    4 months ago

    It's been that way the past couple of elections. The problem is that Republicans in Texas have made it very hard for minorities to vote, for example, by not having any voting precinct in some of their counties. I saw a show where someone with a car had to give some minorities a 45 minutes rid to the closest precinct in Texas for them to vote

  • 4 months ago

    Conservatives in Texas (many of whom don't believe in masks) are a dying breed.  Less of tTump supports every day.  When November comes around, they will be a minority.

    Your whole life?  Where were you when LBJ, Sam Rayburn, John Connelly ran that state?  I was in school in TX back then, and we all laughed at John Tower and his "New Republicans".  Later he was rejected by the Senate for Secretary of Defense nomination.

    tRump gets around those Senate confirmations by appointing temps.

  • Troy
    Lv 6
    4 months ago

    It was called a toss up in 2016, until after the election in which it wasn't even close.

  • Anonymous
    4 months ago

    High tech industry has brought a lot of  educated people to the state from other high tech states.  The demographics has been changing for a while now.

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