Does End of Moore's Law Mean Intel, AMD, or Nvidia Die Too?
I majored in French and biology. I am not computer tech literate, so please forgive me if the question is simplistic or dumb. Basically, I want to understand what happens to these companies making/designing computer chips of Moore's Law is dead?
- Spock (rhp)Lv 71 month ago
who proclaimed the end of Moore's Law? I remember not too many years ago that pundits were saying 7nm was absolute minimum size to build cpus. but TSMC now has a 5nm fab.
- StarryskyLv 71 month ago
Moore's law is just about the rate of improvement of microelectronics given current technology and understanding of physics. If there are new discoveries or new ideas like quantum computing, that could be a game changer.
But the reality is that there is a hard upper limit on the transmission of data. That is the speed of light. Eleven inches of wire length takes a billionth of a second in time to get an electron pulse from one end to another. (THANKS Admiral Grace Hopper) Many tiny computer chips have been made that small to cut down on the time it takes to move around data pulses at the speed of light. That is the only way chip speeds approach 5 GHz. It will be very hard to make chip components like logic gates and memory cells smaller than now. It will take new inventions, more investment in new hardware to get any faster. Communications over long distances may still be limited unless quantum entanglement can be applied to real world uses.
But don't be surprised that all modern technology--communications, power systems, sanitation, food production, transportation--will fail soon. You should read what Club of Rome published in 1972.
The "Limits To Growth" predictions are still valid today. In the next 20 to 30 years, vast and drastic changes in everything from population (6 billion gone) to food (mostly gone) to natural resources (all gone) to pollution (just terrible) will surely happen. The lucky will run screaming with hair on fire and die quickly. The unlucky will starve or be killed for their supplies or flesh. Your children and grandchildren (if any survive) will curse all of us for our waste and stupidity in the face of the obvious fate of Earth. http://www.clubofrome.org
- HLv 41 month ago
It will continue to evolve, but likely not at the same speed.
- Robert JLv 71 month ago
Moore's Law was an observation that computing power, in eg. the newest top CPUs, doubles around every two years.
The fact that it may not now be doubling quite that quickly is irrelevant - more powerful CPUs, faster memory, larger storage devices etc. will continue to be designed.
eg. In 2012, the i7-3900K was the single fastest PC CPU you could buy, from old comparison articles I can find.
That has a passmark score of 6447 overall or 2079 single core.
Now, the fastest in the benchmark tables is an AMD threadripper, scoring around 81,000 or 2513 single core.
This has 12.5 times the overall performance, eight years on.
Moore's law would have predicted a 16x performance improvement in that time, five doublings.
So, it's not increasing as fast as it did through the preceding couple of decades, but CPU performance is certainly still increasing quite dramatically!
(Though, technically, it predicted a doubling of the number of transistors in a CPU - which may be nearer accurate).
Seen as a logarithmic graph, the numbers are not all that far off - it's not as it it has flattened out!
The AMD one I linked to would be close to the top of the graph - with roughly 40 billion transistors...